Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.257537 3.041293 4.134449 5.820045 8.448177e+00 12.563952 1.988527e+01
2025-04-20 1.468080 2.258225 3.574205 6.089378 1.122190e+01 22.470268 5.388961e+01
2025-04-27 1.078693 1.854844 3.364270 6.897849 1.644064e+01 47.594537 2.149241e+02
2025-05-04 0.828492 1.569260 3.225635 7.945355 2.516448e+01 117.922409 1.648824e+03
2025-05-11 0.627631 1.284048 2.930631 8.509766 3.583004e+01 302.073989 4.483326e+04
2025-05-18 0.461799 0.998346 2.462904 8.140457 4.390212e+01 695.069182 2.947767e+10
2025-05-25 0.340994 0.767901 2.009990 7.364847 4.920746e+01 1529.094506 NaN
2025-06-01 0.279121 0.661525 1.868650 7.866274 7.212230e+01 8650.492800 NaN
2025-06-08 0.231215 0.572864 1.732306 8.308258 1.061824e+02 137438.188415 NaN
2025-06-15 0.197469 0.511098 1.655734 9.120135 1.734525e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.169519 0.455690 1.569477 9.836732 2.854812e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.141326 0.388836 1.391553 9.485177 3.744777e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.115499 0.323072 1.188548 8.619416 4.357588e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.100815 0.290512 1.124040 9.161668 7.807425e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.091177 0.272305 1.120921 10.616806 2.040664e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.083286 0.257611 1.128437 12.526931 7.418075e+03 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.074611 0.236694 1.085385 13.620000 2.641263e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.064911 0.208424 0.977160 13.034789 5.440722e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.055925 0.180508 0.854435 11.707911 7.229951e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.051028 0.168143 0.827119 12.652701 7.099365e+05 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.046616 0.156443 0.796585 13.497209 7.356904e+07 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 0.043228 0.148133 0.784950 15.032165 NaN NaN NaN
2025-09-14 0.040032 0.139679 0.766513 16.410875 NaN NaN NaN